A decision support system for modelling logistic chains in freight transport policy analysis

As the logistics activities of firms are becoming increasingly dynamic and global in nature, private and public decision makers depend more and more on information regarding the expected development of future freight flows. A newly developed Decision Support System (DSS) called SMILE (Strategic Model for Integrated Logistic Evaluations) produces forecasts of freight flows related to the Netherlands for a large number of products and modes of transport. The underlying model describes logistics chains at three levels: production, inventory and (multimodal) transportation. The second level accounts for warehousing by using integrated cost functions comprising handling, stockholding and transport costs, using a new segmentation of goods according to their logistical requirements. By means of a graphical user interface, the DSS assists the user with designing scenarios for simulations up to 25 years ahead and visualises the impacts of policy measures on freight flows and the environment. This paper describes the theory behind the model, characteristics of the DSS and potential policy applications.