System dynamics applications to European health care issues

System dynamics applications to European health care issues

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Article ID: iaor2000932
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 50
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 345
End Page Number: 353
Publication Date: Apr 1999
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors:
Keywords: simulation
Abstract:

Taking a European perspective, a review is made of some system dynamics models which address health care issues. Suggestions are made for the types of role which these models should take, bearing in mind the strategic orientation of system dynamics modelling. Examples are described of qualitative models where influence diagrams are the main analytical tool. Quantitative system dynamics models have a contribution to make in epidemiological studies and have been used to analyse the AIDS epidemic. A detailed example of one aspect of model formulation is given. This concerns the AIDS incubation time distribution and shows how real-world complications arising from virological staging and treatment effects are handled in a model of AIDS spread.

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