On the sum of weights: Antithetic forecasting

On the sum of weights: Antithetic forecasting

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Article ID: iaor20001237
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 5
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 341
End Page Number: 342
Publication Date: Jul 1998
Journal: International Transactions in Operational Research
Authors:
Abstract:

In a paper by Ridley, the combining equations included two variable weights, w for the original forecast and q for the antithetic forecast. The weights were allowed to vary independently and unconstrained. However, in that paper as well as in additional research, it turned out that the weights always summed to approximately one. The purpose of this note is to point out this finding, since it can be used to simplify the combining equations; and to reduce and expedite the number of computations required to solve the system of equations. This is accomplished simply by replacing the original independent weights w and q with complementary weights w and (1 − w). The numerical results as implemented in the computer program FOURCAST remain unchanged.

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