Dynamic visioning for dynamic environments

This article considers the particular challenges to organisations facing major change in turbulent times. It briefly reviews the use of visioning tools, especially scenario planning, to support the process of developing strategies requiring major change, and the communication of these plans to key employees. However, it deduces that written scenarios may not adequately portray the dynamic nature of the change, nor provide managers with a vivid enough picture of the post-change environment. System dynamics has been identified as a powerful tool for bringing such a dynamic view, and case examples are offered which use both the diagramming techniques in a qualitative manner and quantitative models to simulate the possible futures. Such simulators enable managers to pre-experience the changed environment, preparing them better to face the transients of the change implementation and the challenges of managing the post-change situation. Future developments and uses of system dynamics in ‘computer-aided visioning’ are considered.