Technological forecasting – model selection, model stability, and combining models

Technological forecasting – model selection, model stability, and combining models

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Article ID: iaor2000597
Country: United States
Volume: 44
Issue: 8
Start Page Number: 1115
End Page Number: 1130
Publication Date: Aug 1998
Journal: Management Science
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications, innovation
Abstract:

The paper identifies 29 models that the literature suggests are appropriate for technological forecasting. These models are divided into three classes according to the timing of the point of inflexion in the innovation or substitution process. Faced with a given data set and such a choice, the issues of model selection needs to be addressed. Evidence used to aid model selection is drawn from measures of model fit and model stability. An analysis of the forecasting performance of these models using simulated data sets shows that it is easier to identify a class of possible models rather than the ‘best’ model. This leads to the combining of model forecasts. The performance of the combined forecasts appears promising with a tendency to outperform the individual component models.

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