Evaluation of stock option prices by using the prediction of fractal time series

Evaluation of stock option prices by using the prediction of fractal time series

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Article ID: iaor2000579
Country: Japan
Volume: 41
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 18
End Page Number: 31
Publication Date: Mar 1999
Journal: Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

This report deals with the prediction method for the time-series bearing fractal geometry. The method is applied to the forecast of stock price and option premium, and the results show better performance of investment compared to the conventional methods. At first, the time series is represented by the convolution of the impulse response expanded by a set of scaling functions and the input signal. Then, by using the time scale expansion, future stock prices are estimated. An indicator showing whether the stock price is fractal is also shown.

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