The impact of information of unknown correctness on the judgmental forecasting process

Modern organizations are awash in information. This information can be very useful and have a major impact on the organization and its future. Much of this information, however, is of unknown correctness. This study investigates whether such information can be effectively used to aid people in forecasting changing time series. In the first section of this study, correct information improved the subjects' forecast accuracy more than incorrect information or no information. Incorrect information, however, resulted in no worse forecast accuracy than no information. The subjects then continued making forecasts as the level of correctness changed (for example, from correct to incorrect information). Those subjects who received incorrect messages at any time during the experiment made less accurate forecasts near the turning point but equivalent forecasts in the long run.