The impact of incentives on the accuracy of subjects in judgmental forecasting experiments

The impact of incentives on the accuracy of subjects in judgmental forecasting experiments

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Article ID: iaor19992771
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 14
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 515
End Page Number: 522
Publication Date: Oct 1998
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , ,
Keywords: judgemental forecasting
Abstract:

There is an ongoing debate in the social sciences about whether or not financial incentives are needed in order to obtain good performance from experimental subjects. This debate often extends into the research on judgmental forecasting. Thus, an experiment was conducted to assess the effects of financial incentives on time series forecasting accuracy. There was no evidence that financial incentives impacted forecasting accuracy in stable time series. Financial incentives also had no impact immediately after instabilities occurred and no impact once the trend in the data had fully emerged.

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