Article ID: | iaor19992771 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 14 |
Issue: | 4 |
Start Page Number: | 515 |
End Page Number: | 522 |
Publication Date: | Oct 1998 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | OConnor Marcus, Remus William, Griggs Kenneth |
Keywords: | judgemental forecasting |
There is an ongoing debate in the social sciences about whether or not financial incentives are needed in order to obtain good performance from experimental subjects. This debate often extends into the research on judgmental forecasting. Thus, an experiment was conducted to assess the effects of financial incentives on time series forecasting accuracy. There was no evidence that financial incentives impacted forecasting accuracy in stable time series. Financial incentives also had no impact immediately after instabilities occurred and no impact once the trend in the data had fully emerged.