Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: Methodology and application to train scheduling

Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: Methodology and application to train scheduling

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Article ID: iaor19992441
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 32A
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 279
End Page Number: 295
Publication Date: May 1998
Journal: Transportation Research. Part A, Policy and Practice
Authors: ,
Abstract:

In previous work, the authors developed an analytical line delay model for analyzing rail line-haul operations, and validated the model as a predictive tool. This paper examines the application of the model as a prescriptive tool for the generation of train schedules. A unique feature of the model is that it incorporates dynamic meet/pass priorities in order to approximate an optimal meet/pass planning process. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the application of the model for adjusting real-world schedules to improve on-time performance and reduce delay. This empirical work represents the first attempt to investigate the impacts of the scheduling methodology on on-time line-haul performance. The problems are based on historical data from a major North American railroad.

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