When to rush a ‘behind’ in Australian rules football: A dynamic programming approach

When to rush a ‘behind’ in Australian rules football: A dynamic programming approach

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Article ID: iaor19992431
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 49
Issue: 5
Start Page Number: 530
End Page Number: 536
Publication Date: May 1998
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: ,
Keywords: programming: dynamic
Abstract:

In Australian rules football, points are scored when the ball passes over the goal line. Six points are awarded for a goal when the ball passes between the two centre posts, and one point for a ‘behind’, when the ball passes between a centre post and an adjacent outer post. After a behind, the defending team has a free kick from the goal line. It may be worthwhile, particularly in the closing stages of a game, for a defending team voluntarily to concede a behind, by themselves passing the ball between the two outer posts, either to avert the possibility of an imminent goal or to increase the probability of scoring a goal themselves. A dynamic programming model is used to analyse this situation.

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