Using a Markov reward model to estimate spend-down costs for a geriatric department

Using a Markov reward model to estimate spend-down costs for a geriatric department

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Article ID: iaor19992413
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 49
Issue: 10
Start Page Number: 1021
End Page Number: 1025
Publication Date: Oct 1998
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: , ,
Keywords: markov processes
Abstract:

A Markov model is used to describe movements of geriatric patients within a hospital system where the states of the Markov chain are acute/rehabilitative, long-stay care, discharge or death. By assigning costs to the states of this model, we can estimate the spend-down costs of running down services given that there are no more admissions and different costs are assigned to acute/rehabilitative and long-stay care. The model is used to estimate the spend-down costs using data previously validated for three Departments of Geriatric Medicine in the South West Thames Region of England. Our approach allows hospital planners to identify cost-effective strategies which take into account the fact that some geriatric patients remain in long-stay care for very long periods of time.

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