Project Management decision making using cross-impact analysis

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the impact of management decisions on project performance outcomes. This decision-theory based methodology consists of a conceptual qualitative model structure and a mathematical model structure. The conceptual component is a simplified structured model of the variables and interactions that influence the decision being analysed. Influences and interactions assessed by experts or members of the management team are stored in a knowledge base. The mathematical component of the methodology uses concepts of cross-impact analysis and probabilistic inference as the core of the analysis procedure. The paper describes how the cross-impact concepts have been adapted and extended. Among the extensions, a method to combine probabilistic evidence is applied in this model to perform probabilistic inference. The result is a powerful but easy to use modelling and decision making methodology.