Reasoning about uncertainty in certain expert systems: Implications for project management applications

This paper intends to take a closer look at the treatment of uncertainty in and the evaluation of risk by expert systems as well as the resulting dangers when this is done uncritically, especially in project management. It looks at the problems inherent in using expert systems and how, unwisely used, they can have the user worse off than if common sense and experience had been used instead. There is no such thing as an expert system for project management (only in specific areas), just as there never will be an expert system for running a company. Benefits can be gained from expert systems and some of these are also considered in the paper.