Technological change and social forecasting: The case of telecommuting as a travel substitute

Telecommuting, along with other telecommunications services, is often suggested to be a solution to congestion-related transportation problems. Forecasts of telecommuting and its impacts have typically overestimated the adoption of this arrangement. The paper reviews the problems of forecasting a complex solution to social problems. It critically assesses the wide range of forecasting approaches applied to telecommuting and the reasons for the upward bias. The appeal of the concept, combined with various interests are among the reasons for the optimistic forecasts. Methodologically, forecasts of telecommuting tend to emphasize technological change while underestimating the social implications which determine the adoption of such technologies. A choice theory is suggested as an alternative approach which can address issues related to human behavior in the context of technological change. The explanatory power of choice models is demonstrated and suggested for future analysis of technologies which entail extensive adaptation for adopters and institutions.