An analytical model for conflict dynamics

A coherent dynamic conflict model is developed from basic principles. The governing equations have a striking resemblance to the continuity equation in fluid dynamics with an additional term for the response to pressure by the opponent. The salient feature of the model is a moving confrontation line which is an excellent indicator for the evolution of conflict. The developed model also permits investigation of the necessary minimum involvement of a third party actor such as an international organization to establish a status quo between the actors. The model is demonstrated on the Russian–Chechen conflict and the Bosnian war.