Increment-vector methodology: Transforming non-stationary series to stationary series

Increment-vector methodology: Transforming non-stationary series to stationary series

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Article ID: iaor1999498
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 35
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 64
End Page Number: 77
Publication Date: Mar 1998
Journal: Journal of Applied Probability
Authors: ,
Keywords: time series & forecasting methods
Abstract:

In time series analysis, it is well known that the differencing operator ▽d may transform a non-stationary series, {Z(t)} say, to a stationary one. {W(t) = ▽d Z(t)}; and there are many procedures for analysing and modelling {Z(t)} which exploit this transformation. Rather differently, Matheron introduced a set of measures on ℛn that transform an appropriate non-stationary spatial process to stationarity, and Cressie then suggested that specialized low-order analogues of these measures, called increment-vectors, be used in time series analysis. This paper develops a general theory of increment-vectors which provides a more powerful transformation tool than mere simple differencing. The methodology gives a handle on the second-moment structure and divergence behaviour of homogeneously non-stationary series which leads to many important applications such as determining the correct degree of differencing, forecasting and interpolation.

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