The role of electric cars in Amsterdam's transport system in the year 2015: A scenario approach

Electric cars may contribute significantly to a reduction in external costs of urban transport. This paper investigates, using a scenario analysis, the necessary conditions for their possible introduction in the city of Amsterdam. First, a background sketch of recent developments in Amsterdam is given, followed by an outline of the potential of, and the problems inherent in, the introduction of electric cars. Four scenarios are constructed by means of the so-called Spider-model. It is visualized in a picture that consists of quadrants and eight axes on which important future developments are sketched on a five point scale. The quadrants represent policy concerns about national and international flanking policies, local economic developments, local spatial policies and public transport policies, respectively. The scenarios used are: ‘Prosperous Amsterdam’, ‘Sustainable Amsterdam’, ‘Pauperized Amsterdam ’ and ‘Lonely Amsterdam’, which largely differ in economic developments and in the spatial focus on sustainability issues. These scenarios act as frameworks for the policy development centered around the future adaption of electric cars in the city. Finally, the transport system and the potential role of the electric car in each scenario is investigated. It is concluded that flanking policies at all levels of spatial aggregation, as well as economic development are a sine qua non for a successful introduction of the electric car.