Guidelines for corrective replacement based on low stochastic structure assumptions

This paper presents corrective replacement decisions, e.g. for machines in a production process or other technical systems. In an attempt to base decisions on observed failure times only, some guidelines are provided for replacing failed machines. The method does not provide an optimal strategy in all situations, indicating that sometimes more information or assumptions are needed. The optimal policy indicates how to act if the low assumptions model recommends action. If the model does not strongly indicate an action, more data need to be collected or more sophisticated modelling is needed. Further modelling would require additional assumptions or input from expert judgements, and could be an expensive exercise. A method that gives clear guidelines if the data are strongly indicative may save time and money. This paper presents the model in an elementary form and is intended as a first step towards modelling more realistic maintenance situations.