Article ID: | iaor1998918 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 16 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 83 |
End Page Number: | 95 |
Publication Date: | Mar 1997 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Lau Hon-Shiang, Lau Amy Hing-Ling, Zhang Y. |
Keywords: | time series & forecasting methods |
The literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. It then develops new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas.