An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution

An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution

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Article ID: iaor1998918
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 16
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 83
End Page Number: 95
Publication Date: Mar 1997
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , ,
Keywords: time series & forecasting methods
Abstract:

The literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. It then develops new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas.

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