Change in travel time across modes and its impact on the demand for inter-urban rail travel

Analysis of the demand for inter-urban rail travel has received little attention in contrast to the large number of studies on urban travel demand. The studies on inter-urban rail demand usually emphasise the effects of monetary costs. Occasionally, changes in rail travel time are considered. However, the central aspect in our study is the impact of changes in road travel time on the demand for rail. This paper specifies and empirically estimates an explanatory model to evaluate the impact of travel time changes on inter-urban rail demand. The change in rail passenger traffic between two periods on various routes is compared with the change in travel times on these routes. That is, it is a model estimated on the change in cross-section traffic volumes between the two periods. The empirical analysis confirms the explanatory power of changes in the intermodal structure of travel times, and shows the need to introduce the impact of these changes when studying the demand for inter-urban travel.