Calculating premiership odds by computer: An analysis of the AFL final eight playoff system

The Australian Football League’s final eight play-off system is explained and the premiership chances of all teams are evaluated and compared with previous final systems. The importance of matches, and the playing order necessary to avoid dead finals is discussed. A computer tipping program published weekly in a daily newspaper produces the probability of any team beating any other team on any ground. This was extended to calculate the chances of every possible finishing order in the finals. The suitability and fairness of the play-offs is evaluated under various criteria. The use of such a program to assist in framing premiership and quinella odds is discussed, and inconsistencies between bookmakers’ odds on individual matches and winning the premiership highlighted. Home ground advantage in finals is assessed. It is shown that the knockout nature of the finals magnifies any home advantage possessed by a team.