Systems simulation to support integrated energy analysis and liberalised planning

This paper describes the application of system dynamics to two very different energy policy contexts, both of which constitute key issues of the 1990s. On the one hand there is the global concern about sustainability and the financing of new energy capacity which has motivated integrated energy planning as a means to accommodate conservation and other demand-side measures. On the other hand, there is the rapid restructuring and privatisation of public utilities, world-wide, into competitive markets. These trends not only appear to pose conflicting policy objectives, e.g. planning versus liberalised market-forces, they also pose a modelling challenge. This paper investigates how far systems modelling and simulation can provide the broad policy oriented framework required for these new purposes. Applications to the UK and Colombia are presented to explore some of the new issues which need to be integrated on this modelling platform.