The quasi-stationary distribution of the closed endemic SIS model

The quasi-stationary distribution of the closed endemic SIS model

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Article ID: iaor19971180
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 28
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 895
End Page Number: 932
Publication Date: Sep 1996
Journal: Advances in Applied Probability
Authors:
Abstract:

The quasi-stationary distribution of the closed stochastic SIS model changes drastically as the basic reproduction ratio R0 passes the deterministic threshold value 1. Approximations are derived that describe these changes. The quasi-stationary distribution is approximated by a geometric distribution (discrete!) for R0 distinctly below 1 and by a normal distribution (continuous!) for R0 distinctly above 1. Uniformity of the approximation with respect to R0 allows one to study the transition between these two extreme distributions. The paper also studies the time to extinction and the invasion and persistence thresholds of the model.

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