A fuzzy logic approach for determining expected values: A project management application

This paper presents a methodology rooted in the general concepts of fuzzy logic theory with specific emphasis on belief functions and extension principles, and fuzzy probability distributions with fuzzy expectation based on fuzzy probability measures. This approach offers a useful alternative to the traditional approach in the estimation of probabilities in the absence of information about relative frequencies. An algorithm called BIPFET is developed and its application is demonstrated by utilizing data from a real-life research and development project.