Identifying critical activities in stochastic resource constrained networks

The analysis of the stochastic project network can provide indications of both the magnitude of temporal risk and the sources of that risk. In a project dominated by technological dependencies rather than resource constraints, the sources of risk can be identified by examining the probabilities of each activity lying on a critical path. Similar criticality probabilities can also be derived for resource constrained stochastic networks if the definition of the critical path is revised. The use of this revised criticality probability is illustrated in an analysis of an example project and other possible measures of identifying the important activities are considered. A quantitative test of the value of the information provided by the criticality probability is developed and applied to a set of 100 randomly generated project networks, comparing the possible measures. This test indicates that the criticality probability provides valuable management information, extending the familiar concept of the critical path to the resource constrained stochastic network.