Calculating transition-probabilities for modelling weed management options using stochastic dynamic-programming

A dynamic programme to optimise the farmer’s long-term weed management problem is described in general terms incorporating decisions of crop, autumn cultivation, timing of planting (winter and spring crops) and herbicide use. This paper concentrates on the formulation of one-step transition probabilities given the uncertain naure of herbicide performance. For a model considering one weed in a cereal rotation examples of the one-step transition probability matrices are given for wild oat control with and without a herbicide application.