Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather

Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather

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Article ID: iaor19962117
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 57
End Page Number: 71
Publication Date: Jan 1996
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , , , ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

Hailfinder is a Bayesian system that combines meteorological data and models with expert judgment, based on both experience and physical understanding, to forecast severe weather in Northeastern Colorado. The system is based on a model, known as a belief network (BN), that has recently emerged as the basis of some powerful intelligent systems. Hailfinder is the first such system to apply these Bayesian models in the realm of meteorology, a field that has served as the basis of many past investigations of probabilistic forecasting. The design of Hailfinder provides a variety of insights to designers of other BN-based systems, regardless of their fields of application.

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