Winkler Robert L.

Robert L. Winkler

Information about the author Robert L. Winkler will soon be added to the site.
Found 19 papers in total
Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters
Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters
2007
Probability forecasters who are rewarded via a proper scoring rule may care not only...
Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: the impact of changes in performance and target distributions
Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: the impact of changes in performance and target distributions
2007
In many situations, performance on several attributes is important. Moreover, a...
Risky choices and correlated background risk
Risky choices and correlated background risk
2005
The analysis of a risky project should take into account not only uncertainties about...
The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis
The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis
2006
Decision analysis produces measures of value such as expected net present values or...
Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests
Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests
2004
We consider contests with a fixed proportion of winners based on relative performance....
On equivalent target-oriented formulations for multiattribute utility
On equivalent target-oriented formulations for multiattribute utility
2006
Targets are used quite often as a management tool, and it has been argued that...
Multiple experts vs. multiple methods: Combining correlation assessments
Multiple experts vs. multiple methods: Combining correlation assessments
2004
Averaging forecasts from several experts has been shown to lead to improved...
Assessing dependence: Some experimental results
Assessing dependence: Some experimental results
2000
Constructing decision- and risk-analysis probability models often requires measures of...
Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test
Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test
1999
Casey, the newborn daughter of one of the authors of this paper, received a positive...
An assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure
An assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure
1995
This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding experts'...
An assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure
An assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure
1995
This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding experts’...
Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making
Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making
1996
Physicians often use health status assessment tools to evaluate a patient’s...
Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather
Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather
1996
Hailfinder is a Bayesian system that combines meteorological data and models with...
Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining
Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining
1995
In many forecasting situations, forecasts can be produced by several different...
Evaluating probabilities: Asymmetric scoring rules
Evaluating probabilities: Asymmetric scoring rules
1994
Proper scoring rules are overall evaluation measures that reward accurate...
Evaluating and combining physicians’ probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit
Evaluating and combining physicians’ probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit
1993
In this paper, probabilities of survival assessed by physicians for patients admitted...
Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach
Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach
1993
In many decision situations information is available from a number of different...
Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues
Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues
1989
A philosophical basis for combining forecasts and some important current issues in the...
Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters
Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters
1990
When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a...
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