Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information

Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor19961941
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 139
End Page Number: 153
Publication Date: Jan 1996
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: judgemental forecasting
Abstract:

Although contextual or causal information has been emphasised in forecasting, few empirical studies have been conducted on this issue in controlled conditions. This study investigates the way people adjust statistical forecasts in the light of contextual/causal information. Results indicate that people appeared to reasonably incorporate extra-model causal information to make up for what the statistical time-series model lacks. As expected, the effectiveness of causal adjustment was contingent upon the reliability of the causal information. While adjustment of forecasts using causal information of low reliability did not lead to significant improvement, adjustment using highly reliable causal information produced forecasts more accurate than the best statistical models. However, people relied too heavily on their initial forecasts compared with the optimal model. Moreover, people did not seem to learn over time to modify this conservative behaviour. People also seemed to prefer statistical forecasts in favour of causal information.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.