The role and validity of judgment in forecasting

All forecasting methods involve judgment but forecasting techniques are often dichotomised as judgmental or statistical. More forecasting research has focused on the development and testing of statistical techniques. However, in practice, human reasoning and judgment play a primary role. Even when statistical methods are used, results are often adjusted in accord with expert judgment. This paper introduces the papers included in this issue of the International Journal of Forecasting and places them within a broader research context. Ths discussion of this context is structured in three sections: judgmental probability forecasting; judgmental time series forecasting; and interaction of judgment and statistical models.