System Dynamics modelling for residential energy efficiency analysis and management

A System Dynamics model to simulate the substitution of installed household appliances by more efficient ones is presented. The model allows the construction of scenarios and also the analyses of several other issues such as: alternatives for technology penetration, electricity consumption growth, gas consumption growth and effects of pricing policies on various energy demands. The proposed methodology has been applied to assist the decision process in relation to gas penetration policies. The model also supports policy making on energy efficiency and it allows the calculation of total energy savings under different scenarios. Furthermore, government underpricing policies on tariffs and appliance acquisition (longer loan terms, lower interest rates and grace periods) may also be analysed.