The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors

A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in (1) the method of estimating the model parameters, (2) the period between re-estimations, (3) the growth curve fitted and (4) the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The response to variation of the parameter review period was found to behave surprisingly, in that it exhibited different signs for two different estimation methods. Changes in re-estimation period explained somewhat more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal improved performance.