Forecasting manpower demand and supply: A model for the accounting profession in Canada

Manpower forecasting, while being an important tool for decision makers such as potential entrants, employers and policy makers, is still in its infancy. The most notable problem in this area is not the lack of sophisticated models but the absence of reliable time series data. For this reason, the forecaster is forced to use the available data in conjunction with a suitable model framework and some judgemental decision. In this paper, we have used such an approach to forecast the possible aggregate manpower imbalances in the accounting profession. Along with the basic primary sources of data from the profession itself, the model uses the outputs of a major Canadian macro econometric model for aggregate industry-based labour requirements. In case of vital data gaps, we were forced to use judgemental estimates based on available qualitative information. The overall approach employed in this exercise emphasizes the efficient use of available data in the design of the model. We consider this method preferable to the alternative, this is, to have a sophisticated model and make adjustments for missing (or unsuitable) data. The basic objective of this paper is mainly to illustrate the mixing of judgemental considerations within a model framework.