Forecasting the female labour force in Britain

Official labour force projections for Britain until 1991 are now based on a regression model which is described in this paper. The model was derived from an econometric study of employment by single years of age during the period 1950-1974. The present labour force projections take the past and projected child-bearing of British women together with cohort-specific constant terms to synthesize, for any age group specified between 20 and 59, the proportion of women who would be in paid employment at a given level of demand. The results predict a slackening of the growth in aggregate labour force participation during the 1980s as the underlying rates approach their limit. When not responsible for children, women in the most recent cohorts display participation rates similar to those recorded for men.