Bias in utility assessments: Further evidence and explanations

Bias in utility assessments: Further evidence and explanations

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Article ID: iaor1989266
Country: United States
Volume: 35
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 406
End Page Number: 424
Publication Date: Apr 1989
Journal: Management Science
Authors: ,
Keywords: decision, heuristics
Abstract:

Judgments about simple gambles, such as those used in utility assessment, can generate sizable and systematic bias. After Hershey and Schoemaker, the authors employ both the probability and certainty equivalence methods to explore bias. Their results show that: (1) the direction and degree of bias depend on characteristics of the assessment gamble such as the reference probability and the difference between outcomes, (2) presenting subjects with explicit anchors can change the size and direction of the bias, and (3) subjects using heuristic response strategies show significantly more bias than those using expectation strategies. The authors also discuss the status of possible explanations for the bias, in light of these new results, including PE mode reframing, random error and anchoring and adjustment.

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