Are economic forecasts valuable?

Are economic forecasts valuable?

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Article ID: iaor19951555
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 13
Issue: 6
Start Page Number: 495
End Page Number: 505
Publication Date: Nov 1994
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors:
Keywords: economics
Abstract:

A previous study questioned whether the published forecasts of one forecasting organization were valuable to users. A forecast was considered valuable if it differed significantly from a naive model in the sense of predicting the direction of change. The results indicated that it was not possible to show that the one-quarter-ahead predictions were valuable. However, the current-quarter forecasts were valuable. This paper examines whether the results are robust. The forecasts of two additional organizations were examined and the time period was extended. The results are generally robust.

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