| Article ID: | iaor19951372 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 22 |
| Issue: | 5 |
| Start Page Number: | 505 |
| End Page Number: | 519 |
| Publication Date: | Sep 1994 |
| Journal: | OMEGA |
| Authors: | lengin F. |
| Keywords: | forecasting: applications, analytic hierarchy process |
In the first part of this paper the U.S. Dollar/DM exchange rates for two different time periods are forecast based on the analytical hierarchy process using the judgments of five experts. Then, the same forecasting activity is repeated via classical approaches namely Regression Analysis, ARIMA Modelling, VAR, Restricted VAR (RVAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR). Finally, the forecasting accuracy of the methods are compared and the results are evaluated.