Predicting advertising expenditures using intention surveys

Predicting advertising expenditures using intention surveys

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Article ID: iaor1995574
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 10
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 327
End Page Number: 337
Publication Date: Jun 1994
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

In this article the authors study the use of intention surveys to predict the effects of a possible entrant. The case under investigation deals with the introduction of private broadcasting in the Netherlands. Several predictions of the advertising expenditures in various media are given which depend on a number of scenarios. These scenarios are used to reduce the discrepancies between behavioural intentions and actual behaviour. The predictions of the most realistic scenario are compared with their realizations, and the differences are analyzed. To this end the prediction error is decomposed into an intention error and a sampling error. This decomposition offers good opportunities to analyze discrepancies between intentions and actual behaviour.

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