A non-linear combination of experts’ forecasts: A Bayesian approach

A non-linear combination of experts’ forecasts: A Bayesian approach

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Article ID: iaor19942529
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 13
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 21
End Page Number: 27
Publication Date: Jan 1994
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors:
Keywords: combining forecasts
Abstract:

A general Bayesian approach to combining n expert forecasts is developed. Under some moderate assumptions on the distributions of the expert errors, it leads to a consistent, monotonic, quasi-linear average formula. This generalizes Bordley’s results.

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