Depending on the weather

The production of oil from the North Sea is subject to substantial risks, from unforeseen delays, exchange rate movements to the consequences of poor equipment specification. Such offshore operations are additionally subject to a more physical buffeting from the environment, with weather and sea introducing a major source of uncertainty demanding special planning. Many Operational Research OR techniques are designed to help managers in these situations, so that while precise problems may not be predicted, a more robust programme can be designed which is more likely to survive a sea of uncertainty. The paper describes how traditional Operational Research OR techniques have been used to model weather risk.