| Article ID: | iaor1994803 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 5 |
| Issue: | 3 |
| Start Page Number: | 651 |
| End Page Number: | 674 |
| Publication Date: | Jul 1993 |
| Journal: | Public Budgeting and Financial Management |
| Authors: | Scholl D., Stapleford John E. |
| Keywords: | forecasting: applications, finance & banking, economics, government, social, time series & forecasting methods |
This paper uses experience in the State of Delaware to explore the application of various mathematical models to forecasting state aid to families with dependent children expenditures. Certain mathematical models are found to provide improved forecasts under a variety of future economic conditions. It is proposed that a partnership between state professionals and resident university researchers can result in an optimum forecast, combining professional judgment with quality econometrics at a relatively low cost.