Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research

Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research

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Article ID: iaor1994435
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 9
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 147
End Page Number: 161
Publication Date: Apr 1993
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Abstract:

This study reviews the research literature on judgmental time series forecasting in order to assess: (i) the quality of inferences about judgmental forecasting in practice which can be drawn from this research; (ii) what is currently known about the processes employed by people when producing judgmental forecasts; (iii) the current evidence that certain strategies can lead to more accurate judgmental forecasts. A key focus of the paper is the identification of areas where further research is needed.

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