Armstrong J. Scott

J. Scott Armstrong

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Found 15 papers in total
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series
Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series
2005
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will...
The Ombudsmen: Reaping benefits from management research: Lessons from the forecasting principles project
The Ombudsmen: Reaping benefits from management research: Lessons from the forecasting principles project
2003
It is often claimed that managers do not read serious research papers in journals. If...
Identification of asymmetric prediction intervals through causal forces
Identification of asymmetric prediction intervals through causal forces
2001
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared...
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting
2001
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to...
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge
2000
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation...
Commentaries on ‘Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: Further empirical evidence’
Commentaries on ‘Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: Further empirical evidence’
1998
This set of comments addresses issues raised by Fildes et al . Armstrong highlights...
The ombudsman: Management folklore and management science-On portfolio planning, escalation bias, and such
The ombudsman: Management folklore and management science-On portfolio planning, escalation bias, and such
1996
Management folklore sometimes leads to unprofitable decision making. Thus, studies of...
Judgmental decomposition: When does it work?
Judgmental decomposition: When does it work?
1994
The authors hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only...
Business school prestige-Research versus teaching
Business school prestige-Research versus teaching
1994
The Editor of Interfaces describes this: Following the article by Scott Armstrong and...
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities
Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities
1992
The authors report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for...
Rule-based forecasting: Development and validation of an expert systems approach to combining time series extrapolations
Rule-based forecasting: Development and validation of an expert systems approach to combining time series extrapolations
1992
This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that...
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons
Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons
1992
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. The...
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
1989
Research from over 200 studies demonstrates that combining forecasts produces...
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings
Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings
1989
A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the...
Research needs in forecasting
Research needs in forecasting
1988
The demand for research on forecasting is strong. This conclusion is based on the high...
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