Implications of switching away from injectable hormonal contraceptives on the HIV epidemic

A recent study showed that progestogen-only injectable hormonal contraception (POIHC) doubles the risk of HIV transmission. This may affect contraceptive use and HIV-related outcomes, if women switch away from POIHC. A deterministic compartmental model of individuals aged 15-49 distinguishing gender and HIV status was used to simulate various contraceptive use scenarios. We specifically tracked HIV prevalence, new infections, HIV-related deaths, vertical transmission, and births over a 15-year period for five African countries. Stopping POIHC use will result in a large increase in births and vertical transmission. Switching from POIHC to other contraceptives limits these increases while still improving HIV outcomes.