Continuous-time Markov duels: Theory and application

This article extends the previous research on Markov duels (stochastic duels between weapons with Markov-dependent fire) to situations in which the time between rounds fired by each duelist is a continuous random variable that depends on the state of combat. Three starting conditions for the duels are considered: simultaneous detection, surprise by one duelist with continuous time detection by his opponent, and surprise with discrete time detection. The amount of surprise is treated as both a constant and a random variable. An application of these models to an evaluation of armored vehicles is described. The methods used to consider a variety of engagement ranges, tactical situations, and target types (both lethal and nonlethal) are discussed. The procedure for incorporating nonduel attrition into the analysis is described and the exchange rate (the expected number of enemy targets killed per armored vehicle killed) is derived.