Forecast horizons and dynamic facility location planning

Forecast horizons and dynamic facility location planning

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Article ID: iaor19931308
Country: Switzerland
Volume: 40
Issue: 1/4
Start Page Number: 125
End Page Number: 151
Publication Date: Feb 1993
Journal: Annals of Operations Research
Authors: , ,
Abstract:

The authors consider a dynamic facility location model in which the objective is to find a planning horizon, equ1, and a first period decision, equ2, such that equ3is a first period decision for at least one optimal policy for all problems with planning horizons equal to or longer than equ4. In other words, they seek a planning horizon, equ5, such that conditions after equ6do not influence the choice of the optimal initial decision, equ7. The authors call equ8a forecast horizon and equ9an optimal initial decision. For the dynamic uncapacitated fixed charge location problem, they show that simple conditions exist such that the initial decision depends on the length of the planning horizon. Thus, a strictly optimal forecast horizon and initial policy may not exist. The authors therefore introduce the concepts of e-optimal forecast horizons and equ10-optimal initial solutions. The present computational experience indicates that such solutions can be found for practical problems. Although computing equ11-optimal forecast horizons and initial decisions can be cumbersome, this approach offers the potential for making significantly better decisions than those generated by other approaches. To illustrate this, the authors show that the use of the scenario planning approach can lead to the adoption of the worst possible initial decision under conditions of future uncertainty. On the basis of the present results, it appears that the forecast horizon approach offers an attractive tool for making dynamic location decisions.

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