Article ID: | iaor2016942 |
Volume: | 35 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 217 |
End Page Number: | 223 |
Publication Date: | Apr 2016 |
Journal: | Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Olmedo Elena |
Keywords: | vehicle routing & scheduling, forecasting: applications, neural networks, programming: nonlinear, learning, time series: forecasting methods |
In this paper we confirm the existence of nonlinear dynamics in a time series of airport arrivals. We subsequently propose alternative non‐parametric forecasting techniques to be used in a travel forecasting problem, emphasizing the difference between the reconstruction and learning approach. We compare the results achieved in point prediction versus sign prediction. The reconstruction approach offers better results in sign prediction and the learning approach in point prediction.