Development of an agent-based model for the secondary threat resulting from a ballistic impact event

Military aircraft must often operate in hostile environments. A worrisome threat to aircraft are the high velocity fragments emanating from missile detonations near the aircraft. These fragments may impact and penetrate the aircraft, causing fires in the aircraft. The process by which a high‐velocity impact event leads to fire ignition onboard military vehicles is complex, influenced by the interaction of heated debris fragments and fuel spurting from ruptured tanks. An assessment of the risk of such a fire begins with a complete characterization of the secondary threat resulting from the impact, including debris fragment sizes, states of motion, and thermal properties. In the aircraft survivability community, there is a need for an analytical tool to model this complete threat. This paper approaches the problem by describing an agent‐based simulation model of the fragments in a debris cloud. An analytical/empirical impact fragmentation model is developed for incorporation into the simulation model, which determines fragment sizes and states of motion. Development and study of this proof‐of‐concept effort leads to a deeper understanding of such secondary threats and demonstrates the value of agent‐based simulation models as an analytical tool. Empirical assessment of model results indicates the viability of the approach.