| Article ID: | iaor201522707 |
| Volume: | 5 |
| Issue: | 3 |
| Start Page Number: | 261 |
| End Page Number: | 271 |
| Publication Date: | Sep 1982 |
| Journal: | Journal of Financial Research |
| Authors: | Chu Chen-Chin, Whitford David T |
| Keywords: | statistics: inference, investment, economics, time series: forecasting methods |
This research investigates the impacts that inflationary expectations and errors in those expectations had upon the stock market during 1975 to 1979. Expected rates of inflation were obtained via (1) Box‐Jenkins time‐series analysis and (2) naive extrapolation. Statistical analysis indicates only weak support for a Fisher effect in determining stock prices. However, the analysis consistently indicates that unanticipated changes in inflation are negatively related to stock market returns.