Applying structured scenario fusion to address multifaceted strategic challenges

This paper proposes an applied method by which to fuse multiple independently developed scenarios to serve as a basis for strategic studies in the national security operations research community. First, it describes the need to fuse scenarios methodically as a consequence of the evolution of global security conditions and as a matter of logic that might be otherwise overlooked. Second, it proposes applying Structured Scenario Fusion (SSF), a method that uses three stylized tables to systematically and transparently record the process of scenario fusion. Third, it provides an example application set in a hypothetical study of future security conditions in Somalia. It concludes that SSF offers a promising way to improve the pedigree, realism, and logic of assumptions underpinning scenario‐based strategic studies, as well as the quality of strategic decisions and plans thereby justified.